Phightin' Phils Phorum

Durbin, Duckworth... Disastrous

 Chad Durbin avoided arbitration yesterday agreeing to a one year contract for $2.125 million. Durbin returns to a bullpen that will need at least two more pieces to just be adequate. Durbin should be considered the long man in the pen as he can go multiple innings and is not quite good enough to be used as a reliable set up man. 

The way the Phillies bullpen looks right now, Durbin will start the season as the seventh inning guy with Ryan Madson in the eighth and Danys Baez doing the closing. If or when Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero can both return healthy and effective, Durbin could return to a role that he is more suitable for, the sixth inning or a game where the team is down in the late innings.

Without Lidge and Romero, this bullpen looks like something the Kansas City Royals would have, not the defending National League Champions. Not to worry though Phillies fans. Ruben Amaro tapped into Kansas City's fine talent and brought back train wreck pitcher Brandon Duckworth. Duckworth, the type of pitcher we had to endure in the Ed Wade era, has continued to pitch to the level we knew he would after leaving Philadelphia in the trade that brought us Billy Wagner. He is 23-34 with a 5.28 ERA in his career. Keep in mind that 15 of those 23 wins came while he was a Phillie. 

I understand filling out your minor league roster but this is ridiculous. What is more ridiculous is that Ruben Amaro will bring him to Spring Training with the hope that he can pitch well and make the team. This guy does not have the stuff to pitch at the big league level. Having someone watch him pitch in camp is a waste of the team's time. We need REAL pitching help, not "never will be's" from seven years ago!

In other news, the Phillies will begin negotiating with Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, and Carlos Ruiz to try to avoid arbitration. Expect all three to be signed without going to a hearing. In my opinion the toughest one to come to terms with will be Victorino. Several inside sources have told me that he has an inflated worth of himself. 

The Phillies also signed pitchers Jason Standridge and Nate Bump to minor league contracts. Standridge was a number one draft pick but has not pitched at the major league level since 2007. Bump has not pitched in the big leagues since 2005.

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Myers Runs His Mouth After Signing With Ed Wade's Astros

Brett Myers would forever be remembered fondly in Philadelphia after recording the last out in 2007, his classic at bat in the 2008 NLDS, and a host of other highlights in his tenure. Unless of course, he were to spout off about the team after leaving. He did!

Myers told the associated press, "I wanted to go back to Philadelphia, but they didn't show an interest, they had other obligations, which is fine with me."  He then said he planned to "stick it" to the Phillies every time he faces them.

Hasn't this guy learned anything? Instead of going down in Philadelphia history as a World Series winner and hero, he will instead go down as a loud mouth that beat his wife and picked a fight with beat writer Sam Carchidi. 

No wonder the Phillies didn't want him back despite their need at the back end of the rotation. His attitude has just never changed and he has not matured one bit. When Brett Myers broke into the major leagues, I looked at Myers as a guy who could be a dominant, top of the rotation pitcher. He certainly had the stuff. Instead, we saw a head case that was great at times, average at times, and horrible at times. He ought to be kissing up after his last contract and the numbers he put up.

Brett, have fun in Houston. With you and Ed Wade there I can only imagine that the rest of the Central Division has thrown in the towel and realize they have no chance to win the division this year. Polish your World Series ring. It is the last one you will ever get!

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Eyre retires: Brown, Aumont, and Gillies Among 13 Invited To Spring Training

 Scott Eyre decided to call it quits after 13 years in the major leagues and offseason elbow surgery. He said the Phillies offering a just a minor league contract did not make up his mind and that even if he was offered the same amount as last season, he still probably would have retired.

According the Eyre, he was ready to retire. He said he "had most of this retirement thing planned out". He plans on taking his wife, two kids, and four dogs RVing across Utah, Oregon, Yosemite, and Idaho. If you ask me, I would rather go to Clearwater!

 Eyre pitched in 617 major league games, had a 28-30 record, and a career ERA of 4.23. The Phillies still have a gaping hole in the bullpen left by Eyre and Chan Ho Park. With only Ryan Madson and Danys Baez expected to be healthy to start the season, the backend of the bullpen is in disarray. 

In other news, the Phillies invited their top prospect Dominic Brown, Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies who where acquired in the Cliff Lee deal, and 10 others to Spring Training yesterday. Joe Savery got his second invitation along with Ozzie Chavez, Freddy Galvis, Tuffy Gosewisch, Kevin Nelson, Dane Sardinha, John Suomi, B.J. Rosenberg, Ryan Voglesong, and Ehren Wassermann. 

Other then Aumont who has a very outside chance of making the team as a bullpen arm, don't expect to see any of these guys on the big league roster.

Check out Billy The Philly Fan's latest rant about the 2010 bullpen!

Amaro Deluded About Bullpen

Ruben Amaro said yesterday that he still has a few items on his wish list. He would like to add another starting pitcher and a left handed relief pitcher. While he is correct about needing another starting pitcher, if he thinks that all he needs in the bullpen is one left handed pitcher, he is completely delusional!

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen was their biggest weakness in 2009. Lidge was a liability, Romero spent the season suspended or on the disabled list, and Ryan Madson, Chan Ho Park, and Scott Eyre were the only steady arms out of the pen in the late innings. Coming into 2010, the Phillies refuse to offer Eyre anything more than a minor league contract. That is a complete insult to Eyre but with his age and having had surgery, I understand Amaro's position. 

What I do not understand is how he expects the bullpen to be any better in 2010. Lidge is a huge question mark. While signing Baez brings someone with closing experience, he should be considered an emergency plan at best. Good teams don't put guys with career ERA's over 4 as their set up man/ back up closer. Would the Yankees? Would the Red Sox? As I have said before, Baez is not as good as Park so this is a downgrade. While we once again hear the names Joe Biemel and Will Ohman to replace Eyre, we heard these names last year and Amaro could not get the job done.

What Amaro is failing to realize is that with Lidge and Romero's health in question, just replacing Park and Eyre in the bullpen is not good enough. If they are worried about what Chad Durbin will win in arbitration then trade him and sign both Ohman and Biemel or acquire another set up quality bullpen arm. 

The Phillies bullpen is far from where it needs to be to compete in 2010. If the Phillies want to go deep into October again, they need to make significant upgrades in the bullpen and give Charlie Manuel real options for the games Roy Halladay does not pitch.

One last note. Notice the names Sergio Escalana and Antonio Bastardo were not included in this discussion. I did not want to insult your intelligence trying to tell you that either of these pitchers are viable options for the Phillies bullpen. If the Phillies go this route, they might as well just start the season by saying we have been to the World Series twice, let someone else go for a change!

Baez and Phillies Agree to 2 Year Deal

 As has been speculated since before Christmas, the Philadelphia Phillies and free agent relief pitcher Danys Baez have agreed to terms on a two year contract pending a physical. Terms have not been disclosed. Baez was 4-6 with a 4.02 ERA in 59 games in 2009 for the Baltimore Orioles.

Baez at this point will replace Chan Ho Park in the bullpen although he is a downgrade from Park. While Baez has closing experience, he probably can be relied upon about as much as Chad Durbin (or not all that much). With Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero's health questionable at best, and the departure of Park and possibly Scott Eyre, Ruben Amaro has a big job ahead of him just to get the bullpen as good as it was in 2009 which was shaky at best.

With the Phillies crying poor and bullpen arms being in demand, the bullpen again could be the Phillies achilles heel in 2010. Having too many arms in the pen is not enough. What do you call not having enough? In shambles. That is where the bullpen is at it stands now, in shambles.

More on Baez.

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Danys Baez Signed By Phillies?

 The Philadelphia Phillies have signed a relief pitcher. Who? Well according to Phillies.com it is Danys Baez although nothing has been confirmed. What is known is that Fernando Rodney, the better choice, is set to sign with the Angels. 

Baez does have closing experience but his 2009 mark with the Orioles was a pedestrian 4-6 with a 4.02 ERA. Hardly the numbers a team that won the pennant wants to add to their seventh or eighth inning set up squad. His career numbers are no better as he has a 35-49 record with a 4.04 ERA. Baez pitched for Charlie Manuel's Indians in 2001 and 2002. His best season came in 2005 when he pitched for Tampa Bay. He was 41 of 49 in save opportunities and in 67 games had a 2.86 ERA.

To add a little more analysis to the deal, assume that Baez will replace Chan Ho Park in the Phillies bullpen. Does a guy with an ERA over 4 really make them a better team? No. It keeps them the same at best. And I question that. The Phillies need to do better than this filling out the rest of the pen if they hope to go deep into October in 2010.

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Meet the New Prospects: Tyson Gillies

Tyson Gillies was the Seattle Mariners 25 round selection in the 2006 draft. Despite the low pick, he was rated the 15th best player in the Mariner's system by baseball America. At age four, Gillies was diagnosed with a hearing impairment that has left him with 30 percent hearing in one ear and 60 percent in the other. Thanks to the use of hearing aids and an ability to read lips Gilles has little trouble overcoming his impairment.

He began pro career with the Peoria Mariners in 2007. He recorded a single in his first career at-bat, June 23 against the Arizona League Angels. He recorded three stolen bases on August 6 against the Arizona League Royals. He was transferred to the Short-Season Everett AquaSox on August 31, recording five hits in eight at-bats. He participated in the Mariners 2007 Arizona Fall League.

Gillies began the 2008 season with the Class-A Advanced High Desert Mavericks. He appeared in 11 games before being transferred to Everett on June 9. He was named Everett's Player of the Year by the Seattle Mariners. He hit .200 in first 11 games, but rebounded to hit .328 in July and .351 in August and finished fifth in the Northwest League with a .313 average. He set season-high with 4 hits on July 17 against the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes. Gillies recorded a career-high 17-game hit streak, fourth longest in the league, batting .397 from August 7 to 25.

In 2009 Gillies excelled past expectations with High Desert batting .342 with nine home runs, 42 RBIs and swiping 44 bases. He made the 2009 All-Star Futures Game in St. Louis, Missouri playing for the World Team. Gilles won the California League batting title at the end of the '09 season. He was one of the main catalysts in the Mavs' second half title push, the title the eventually won.

Scouting Report:

Making contact, hitting for average, on base skills

Gillies’ contact rates were a big concern when he started his pro career and still are, but his strikeout rates have declined each year, alleviating some of the concern.  If he can continue to improve his selectiveness his short swing and average batspeed should produce enough contact.

Gillies’ footspeed will help him keep his batting average steady.  He hits or bunts the ball on the ground more often than not and if the infield can’t get the ball to first base in less than four seconds he’s probably going to get a hit out of it.  In the Futures Game he almost beat out a routine play to second base and following a drag bunt he crossed first base before any fielder was able to reach the ball.  As he encounters better and more experienced fielders this method of getting base hits will become less reliable, but as long as he can beat out throws on a semi-consistent basis he will always have a way to find hits even if he’s not swinging the bat well.  This will help him maintain a respectable batting average, but until he learns to square the ball up more he probably won’t hit for particularly high averages.

His walk rates have been very solid the last two seasons, but as he moves up and faces better competition he’s going to be forced to swing the bat.  Still, he should at least walk at an average rate at higher levels.

Hitting for power

Gillies hasn’t shown power to date, but some of that can be chalked up to unwillingness rather than inability.  He takes advantage of his speed by bunting and slapping the ball around in most at bats.  The ball is ending up on the ground slightly less this season, but hitting for power still isn’t really part of his gameplan right now.  His physical tools suggest that there is at least average power to be developed, but he’ll have to consciously work on that part of his game if he wants to hit for power.

Speed and baserunning

Gillies was ranked as the system’s fastest baserunner by Baseball America heading into the 2009 season, and I doubt there will be many people arguing that point.  He undoubtedly possesses plus-plus footspeed and is a stolen base threat, registering 23 swipes through 77 games so far.  His success rate needs to get a bit better, but his jumps should improve with experience.  Some scouting reports give Gillies’ raw speed an unheard of 80 grade on the 20-80 scale.

Fielding range

Gillies hasn’t yet learned to maximize his range in the outfield.  He doesn’t always get the best jumps and route running isn’t yet a strength.  This is where his partial deafness makes things difficult for scouts.  He’s unable to fully use the sound off the bat to help gauge how well a ball is hit, leaving some question as to how much he can improve these areas of his game.  Fortunately, his blistering speed erases many of his mistakes and allows him to grade out with above average range despite the inefficiencies.

Arm strength

Gillies might have the best arm on the farm heading into the season if it wasn’t for Carlos Triunfel, but he was ranked as the system’s best outfield arm by Baseball America coming into the year.  He’s got a rocket.

Conclusion

What you have to like about Gillies from a player development standpoint is that he’s virtually a lock to fill a 25-man roster spot someday.  He can run, play defense and throw, making him a fourth outfielder at very least. His contact rates and power will determine if he gets the chance to play everyday, and while he’s got a long way to go he’s been showing steady improvement and time is on his side as he’s just 20 years old.

Pro Ball NW

Year	Team	Lg	Age	Org.	Level	Pos	Ln	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2007	Azl Mariners	Ariz	18	SEA	Rk	of		35	86	20	19	3	2	0	6	9	6	6	23	9	0	0	0	1	.221	.337	.302	639
	Everett	Nwst	18	SEA	A-	of		4	8	3	5	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.625	.625	.625	1250
2008	Everett	Nwst	19	SEA	A-	of		61	192	36	60	6	5	2	22	22	7	35	46	10	0	3	2	0	.313	.439	.427	866
	High Desert	Calif	19	SEA	A+	of		11	30	4	7	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	6	1	0	1	0	0	.233	.281	.300	581
2009	High Desert	Calif	20	SEA	A+			124	498	104	170	17	14	9	42	44	19	60	81	18	5	16	1	6	.341	.430	.486	916
Minor League Totals								235	814	167	261	26	22	11	73	78	33	102	157	38	5	20	3	7	.321	.419	.447	866

Meet the New Prospects: J.C. Ramirez

Having one J.C. was not enough this Christmas so J.C. Romero was joined in the Phillies organization by Juan "J.C." Ramirez. The 21 year old is 6'3 and weighs in at 225 pounds. It seems control is the biggest issue with the new J.C. Sounds familiar from the old J.C.

Ramírez began his professional career in 2006, pitching for the Rookie-Level VSL Mariners. With them, he went 5-1 with a 1.66 ERA in 14 games, 13 starts. He pitched for the Short-Season Everett Aqua Sox in 2007, posting a 3-7 record and an ERA of 4.30 in 15 games started. In 2008, he pitched for the Class-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers of the Midwest League, going 6-9 with a 4.14 ERA in 25 games, 22 starts. With the Class-A Advanced High Desert Mavericks in 2009, he went 8-10 with a 5.12 ERA in 28 games, 27 starts. He was added to the Mariners' 40-man roster on November 20 to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.

Scouting Report: "He's shown a pretty good breaking ball this year, but it needs work; he has to be more consistent with it," an American League scout said. "He's young and still fairly raw, but there's stuff there, and the better the breaking ball is the better his chances are beyond this level."

Ramirez's fastball is typically clocked in the 91-94 mph range, occasionally touching 95 or 96.

"He's got enough velocity to get a lot of outs just by blowing it by hitters," the scout said. "But this is about development, and that's why (the Mariners) insist he uses the curveball as well. And he's shown a change, too, which wasn't a bad pitch his last time out. For a kid, he's got a pretty solid, full arsenal."

Ramirez throws from a three-quarters arm slot and displays good arm speed and solid mechanics. In his five outings with Wisconsin, he's walked nine batters in 28 innings while piling up 31 strikeouts, including nine in each of his past two starts.

"He's found a consistent release point, and the key is for him to hang onto that, even when he struggles," said the scout, who spent parts of 13 seasons pitching in pro ball and another seven as a pitching coach in two organizations. "Most young pitchers that fail, fail because they aren't able to find consistencies, whether it be in a pitch, or more likely, their mechanics.

"If Ramirez is finding that at his age, it's bonus for Seattle. He'll be on a nice path to the big leagues."

Year	Team	Lg	Age	Org	Lvl	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SH	GF	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WP	H9	HR9	BB9	K9	WHIP
2007	Everett	Nwst	20	SEA	A-	3	7	4.30	15	15	0	0	0	0	75.1	61	49	36	3	43	73	9	7.3	0.4	5.1	8.7	1.38
2008	Wisconsin	Midw	21	SEA	A	6	9	4.14	25	22	0	0	2	0	124.0	112	68	57	9	38	113	2	8.1	0.7	2.8	8.2	1.21
2009	High Desert	Calif	22	SEA	A+	8	10	5.12	28	27	1	0	1	0	142.1	153	93	81	18	53	111	14	9.7	1.1	3.4	7.0	1.45
Minor League Totals						17	26	4.59	68	64	1	0	3	0	341.2	326	210	174	30	134	297	25	8.6	0.8	3.5	7.8	1.35

Halladay, Lee, Prospects, What Makes Sense?

 When the Philadelphia Phillies traded for Cliff Lee before the trade deadline many fans including myself felt a little disappointed that the team did not get the best pitcher available. Of course Lee pitched brilliantly and we quickly realized that Ruben Amaro had made a great deal without giving up his best prospects. A few days ago when the news broke that the Phillies were considering trading Lee for Roy Halladay, many wondered what the thought process was.Lee has proven himself to be a big game pitcher that could pitch in Philadelphia and Citizens Bank Park. He proved himself as a post season hero going 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA while being younger than Halladay who has no playoff experience. So the questions come to why, does this make them a better team, and does the deal make sense?

Let's start with why. The Phillies believe they can not sign Lee long term and that after this season, he would walk and the Phillies would get nothing more than a first round draft pick. Consider this, if Lee were to a team that made it to the post season, say the Yankees, that pick could be as low as the 30th   selection overall. Hardly compensation for Lee. Any deal for Halladay will include a contract extension that looks to be some where in the neighborhood of 3 years and $60 million with vesting options for an additional year.

Depending on who you talk to, replacing Lee with Halladay makes them a better team immediately. Both are former Cy Young Award winners and inning eaters. Halladay though is 148-76 with a 3.43 ERA in his career. Lee is 90-52 with a 3.97 ERA lifetime. Both are impressive but Halladay is just a little bit better. The Phillies will still have holes to fill in their rotation but will have a one two combination only matched by the Yankees and Red Sox and probably a little better then the Cardinals. Joe Blanton will probably return as the number 3 starter after talks to trade him faltered in the winter meetings. J.A. Happ will be the number 4 guy although no one expects him to pitch like he did in his rookie campaign making the back end of the rotation sketchy. The only in house candidates for the number 5 spot are Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer. Neither can be relied on meaning the Phillies will need to find additional help.

Does this deal make sense? One thing is for sure, the Phillies were telling the truth when they said they were committed to being good for the long haul and as Lee Jenkins from SI.com said, they are beginning to operate like the Yankees and Red Sox "substituting great players for elite ones." The deal makes complete sense as the Phillies have found a way to keep a number one guy in their rotation for multiple years without giving up prized prospects Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown. While the rumors about Lee not being willing to sign may or may not be true, he certainly will come with a much bigger price tag then what Halladay will and again is not quite as good of a pitcher. The 15 months in age and playoff experience seem to matter less and less as you look into what the Phillies are getting and how long they are getting it for.

Updates: Now we just have to wait for the deal to be finalized and hope that Ruben Amaro can get the deal done. Later developments say Kyle Drabek and or Michael Taylor could also be involved in this deal. The rumors keep flying Stay tuned as we will have updates as they happen.

The latest update from ESPN.com:

Sources: Halladay to Phils, Lee to M's deal close

Sources: Halladay to Phils, Lee to M's deal close

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