Phightin' Phils Phorum

The State of The Phillies for 2010

The Philadelphia Phillies seem poised to enter the 2010 season as favorites to win another pennant. Predictions are on paper though and as a fan, you have to ask yourself what else they need to ensure success again this season.

Starting pitching is the foundation that championships are built on. The Phillies improved the top of their rotation by adding arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay. He will anchor a staff that will include Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, and J.A. Happ. The number 5 spot is still up in the air. With Jamie Moyer's age and recent injuries, he is far from a sure thing. Kyle Kendrick and newcomer Jose Contreras will both be given a shot, but Kendrick's inconsistency and Contreras lack of success in recent seasons leave a hole at the back end of the rotation that the Phillies will still need to figure out. More depth is needed in the rotation. In addition to the number 5 spot, no one can be sure the Happ can continue to dazzle, that Hamels will return to form, or that someone will suffer an injury. Add one starting pitcher to the wish list.

The bullpen is the team's biggest area of concern. While publicly Ruben Amaro and Charlie Manuel say they are happy with it, behind closed doors there is no way that they can be. Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero both began throwing programs this week. That is far from a guarantee that either will be ready or effective come April 5. If Lidge can get healthy, do we see the guy from 2008 or 2009? If Romero can not return healthy, is Danys Baez the right guy to complement Ryan Madson in the set up role. Contreras and Phillippe Aumont could be other good options for the Phillies, but the team never really replaced Chan Ho Park and will go into 2010 with a less certain bullpen then in 2009. Add a quality set up man to the wish list.

The Phillies did a good job solidifying the catching situation. The Carlos Ruiz contract was a no brainer and Brian Schneider as a back up was a great addition. I question the team's depth at the position in the minor leagues, but barring injury, the Phillies have catching taken care of for the next few seasons.

The Phillies infield is one of the best in baseball. Take away the Yankees and in my opinion it is the best. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins all have the ability to be All Stars in 2010 and one of them could bring another MVP award back to Philly. While I am not thrilled about the Placido Polanco signing, he adds a versatile bat to the lineup and gives the Phillies a very solid hitter in the number 7 spot in himself or more likely Shane Victorino. Greg Dobbs can play the corner infield positions as well as the corner outfield spots and gives the team a nice left handed bat off of the bench. Juan Castro can play all four positions and is a slight upgrade from Eric Bruntlett.

The outfield could once again have three All Stars. Raul Ibanez will be healthy coming into the season while Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth enter the prime of their careers. Could Werth hit 40 homeruns this season? It is certainly possible. Ben Francisco and Ross Gload give the team two more solid bats off of the bench. Francisco plays solid defense at all three positions while Gload plays the corners and can play first base.

The Phillies enter the 2010 season with perhaps their best roster in franchise history. They have six players in their starting lineup that could make the All Star team and three that could win an MVP award. Their rotation is led by one of the best pitchers in the game who could win the team's first Cy Young Award since Steve Bedrosian in 1987. If the Phillies can figure out the back end of their rotation and bolster their bullpen, this could be the year that they win 100 games in the regular season and bring the City of Brotherly Love another World Championship!

Yankees or Angels Who Cares? Phillies Still Waiting For World Series Opponent

Who will the Philadelphia Phillies face in the 2009 World Series? Will it be the Steinbrenner's Fantasy Team that has the best players money can buy? Or will it be Bobby Abreu's Angels? And, does it really matter?

To call the New York Yankees a fantasy team is probably an insult to any fantasy baseball fans out there. What fantasy league would allow the payroll that the Yankees have in their league. Their payroll in 2009 was about $86 million above the Phillies and head and shoulders over the median salary in MLB of about $80 million. Still, a $201 million payroll does not guarantee you a championship. Don't believe me? Just ask the team with the second highest payroll, the New York Mets.

Of course if the Phillies face the Yankees we will all have to hear about the Yankees mystique. While that mystique was surely with the Yankees in the 20th century, the new century has been more about the Yankees mistakes. Want to talk about current day mystiques? Let's talk about Ryan Howard saying, "Get me to the plate boys" then delivering in the NLDS. What about Jimmy Rollins winning hit in game 4 of the NLCS with two outs in the ninth inning when the team was trailing. That is the Phillies mystique and friends it is a current mystique, not something from the Babe Ruth or Mickey Mantle era!

Then there are the never say die Angels. Bobby Abreu and friends came home after losing two games in New York and were able to make a series of it. The team showed heart last night after blowing a four run lead. They fought back and brought the series back to New York. While Yankees fans have their usual arrogance that this series is over, the Angels could be another October surprise like the Red Sox were in 2004.

As for the Phillies, they can rest their arms, heal their injuries, and wait to see who they will face in the fall classic. You will hear about match ups, the Phillies getting manhandled by the Angels in interleague play, predictions, mystiques, superstitions, and every other crazy thing. Let me just make one statement based on fact. For over a year now, the Phillies have handled ever obstacle that has come their way, defeated every foe, and silenced every critic that has said they would not repeat. The media, Yankees fan, Angels fans, and anyone else can call the Phillies underdogs, complain about their bullpen, etc. Go right ahead. But be ready to eat your words when Charlie's Wall Bangers repeat as World Champions!!!

Also be sure to check out MLBComplete.com and TheBronxDaily.com.

Predictions Revisited

Each year I predict who will win each division, the playoffs, and a few awards. With the regular season nearly behind us (and the Twins Tigers game will effect my results), let's take a look at how I did as far as division winners go.

Here were my predictions from April 4, 2009:

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: St Louis Cardinals

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays

World Series: Cubs vs Yankees
Winner: Yankees 6 games

In the National League I got three out of four of the playoff teams. Of course the Cards won the division and the Rockies won the Wild Card.

In the American League I could also end with with three out of four if the Twins can win the last regular season game ever played at the Metrodome. I can't wait to watch this one!

I am obviously wrong about the Cubs going to the World Series but stick with my prediction that the Yankees will be there. I just do not think the Red Sox, Angels, or whichever team comes out of the central can beat the Bombers.

While I think the National League is very hard to call right now, I will sound like a homer and pick the Phillies. Those of you that know me know I am anything but a homer. I just think the Phillies match up very well with all three of the other teams. With their experience from last season I think it makes them slight favorites. Then again, Brad Lidge could level the playing field himself!

My World Series prediction remains the New York Yankees. While the Phillies will try to seek revenge for the four game sweep in 1950, the Yankees have the solid bullpen which will make the difference in 2009.

Below were my predictions for awards:

NL MVP: Chase Utley
NL Cy Young Award: Tim Lincecum

AL MVP: Mark Teixeira
AL Cy Young Award: Josh Beckett

NL Biggest Free Agent or Trade Bust: Francisco Rodriguez
AL Biggest Free Agent or Trade Bust: C.C. Sabathia

I can see I already got a few of these wrong. We will revisit them when the awards are announced after the World Series.

2009 Predictions

A year ago, I gave my predictions for the season. Some were good (Puhols winning the MVP, the Phillies and Cubs winning the division), others were not (the Tigers winning the World Series). Let's see if I can do any better in 2009.

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central: Chicago Cubs
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Card: St Louis Cardinals

AL East: New York Yankees
AL Central: Minnesota Twins
AL West: Los Angeles Angels
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays

World Series: Cubs vs Yankees
Winner: Yankees 6 games

NL MVP: Chase Utley
NL Cy Young Award: Tim Lincecum

AL MVP: Mark Teixeira
AL Cy Young Award: Josh Beckett

NL Biggest Free Agent or Trade Bust: Francisco Rodriguez
AL Biggest Free Agent or Trade Bust: C.C. Sabathia

What are your predictions?

National League East Preview: New York Mets

The New York Mets have put new meaning to the word "chokers". In 2007 they looked the part of a team that could repeat in the NL East. Instead they took part in the biggest collapse in major league history. In 2008 they trailed the Phillies most of the season and seemed to get hot at the right time taking the lead in the East in August. History repeated itself though and the choker label reared its ugly head again as the Mets lost the division by 3 games.

In 2009, the Mets need to find at least 4 more wins if they hope to dethrone the 2 time National League East Champion Phillies. They sured up the back end of their bullpen by adding Fransisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz but did they do enough?

Starting with the bullpen, the eighth and ninth innings certainly look more secure with Putz and K-Rod but what else do they have in the pen? They traded Aaron Heilman and Scott Schoenweis away and have no other depth. Pedro Feliciano and Duaner Sanchez, who both had ERA's over 4, are the only solid candidates to fill out the pen. Sure Billy Wagner says he is coming back but can you really bank on that? The Mets will overuse Putz and K-Rod and still not have the bullpen they need to win.

The Mets starting rotation is adequate but also third best in the division behind the Phillies and Braves. Johan Santana is one of the top starters in the game and the 30 year old will be the stopper at the top of the rotation. John Maine and Mike Pelfrey are both number 3 or 4 pitchers leaving the Mets without a true number 2 in their rotation. Oliver Perez is a number 4 or 5 while Tim Redding is a number 5 pitcher. The Mets have some depth this year with rookie Jonathan Niese and the low risk high reward signings of pitchers like Freddie Garcia and Livan Hernandez. Bottom line is the rotation should be good but below the rotations of the Phillies and Braves.

The story in New York right now is that Jerry Manuel is contemplating using Jose Reyes as the team's number 3 hitter. This would move Luis Castillo to the leadoff spot and cause the middle of the lineup to look like this:

3. Reyes
4. Wright
5. Beltran
6. Delgado

This is a nice middle of the line up and should produce some runs. Reyes is not a typical leadoff hitter and would probably better serve the team in the 3 spot. The issue is can Luis Castillo really still be a quality leadoff hitter? His legs only allowed him to play in 87 games in 2008 where the 33 year old only hit .245. Then, who hits number 2? The unproven Daniel Murphy?

When you look deeper at the Mets your realize this is a team with some really nice players but they lack depth. Both corners of the outfield and catcher are question marks at best. There is no bench to speak of. If a starting player gets hurt, there is no back up plan. Even the middle of the lineup is questionable as Carlos Delgado will be 37 and Carlos Beltran has had knee problems.

The Mets lack the depth to play a full 162 game schedule. They will be competitive and if everything goes perfectly for them they could win the division, but how often does that happen over a long season? My prediction for the Mets is that they will again be in the 85 to 89 win range and either barely win the wild card or just miss the playoffs.

Rollins Looks Into His Crystal Ball

Fans have become very familiar with the future predictions of one Phillies short stop, Jimmy Rollins.  Declaring the Phils “The Team To Beat” in 2007, the Phillies went on to win the division.  Then for 2008, Rollins proclaimed the Phillies would get at least 100 wins; they did.  103 to be exact, including the post-season.  So what does the all-knowing Rollins, King of the Baseball Prognosticators, predict for 2009?

- 101 wins in the regular season; 112 wins total (this would include another World Series title).

- Cole Hamels will win the Cy Young award; Cole is right now crying tears of joy and sending a fruit basket to Rollins.

- There will be another Phillies NL MVP in 2009.

- Brad Lidge will continue his streak until he decides that he is “tired of it.”  Hmmmm…seems Rollins is falling back on age-old psychic fake-out techniques for this one as he cannot possibly be wrong.  It like saying that it will not rain all month long, unless the grass cries out for help.  Either way, you are covered.  Except maybe if the thoughts of tiny blades of greenery screaming in pain keeps you up at night…

- And finally, Rollins has stated that there will be another Parade down Broad Street. 

See the VIDEO HERE.

Phillies fans get ready to party!  Rollins has not been wrong yet.  And with a superior middle infield in place, the signing of Ryan Howard and new life in left, he has reason to be confident.  Only time will tell.  What does your crystal ball say?

National League East Preview: Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves offered Tom Glavine a contract and a chance to return for another season with the team. Glavine's offer is only for one season and worth only $1 to $2 million but what a number 5 pitcher the 300 game winner would be. With the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets making most of the news in the division, the Braves have flown under the radar and quietly put together one of the best rotations in the National League.

The rotation will include Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Javier Vasquez, Kenshin Kawakami, and a stable full of possibilities for the number 5 spot. If Glavine is not signed, the team will look internally at Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton, Tommy Hanson and James Parr. In addition, they have Tim Hudson recovering from surgery. Hudson is due back in late July or early August and could provide a big boost to this already formidable rotation.

While pitching win pennants and the Braves seem good in the rotation, they are less solid in their lineup. They still do not know who their center or left fielders will be and GM Frank Wren says the team only has $6 to $7 million more to spend this offseason. This leaves the team's options very slim. The Braves have been rumored to be interested in free agent and former Phillie Bobby Abreu and have been linked in trades for Nick Swisher or Xavier Nady. Any of these options will be in the $5 million range.

In the infield, Chipper Jones leads the way and while he showed he is still a top hitter, his health has been in question. The rest of the infield is young . Kelly Johnson looks to be the team's leadoff hitter but he is far from perfect for that role. Casey Kotchman will enter his third full season and while he is serviceable, 14 homeruns is not enough production for a first baseman.

Overall the lineup and bench lack depth and the Braves may see themselves losing a bunch of one run games where they waste solid pitching performances. The bullpen lacks an anchor and unless someone steps up, they will have a hard time closing out games. Bottom line, expect a solid rotation in Atlanta with a lineup and bullpen that are not able to produce enough to keep the team in the pennant race. I predict 79 to 83 wins for the Braves.

National League East Preview: Florida Marlins

Charlie Manuel said during Spring Training last year that the Florida Marlins were going to be a much improved club. I don't think he thought the Marlins would be in the thick of the pennant race until the late summer though. Built on young talent, the Marlins are always a tough opponent and 2009 will see some new prospects get a chance to prove themselves.

The Marlins lack of spending however, makes me believe the team will take a step back this year and not be quite as good. With the key losses of Scott Olson, Mike Jacobs, Kevin Gregg, and Josh Willingham, they will have to hope that their next crop of young stars can fill their shoes.

Gaby Sanchez is the top prospect to watch for this year as he is the front runner to replace Jacobs at first base. Sanchez is a complete hitter that is expected to hit for average, walk, and hit 20 to 25 homeruns a season. He is considered a run producer by the team's scouts.

Chris Coghlan, Michael Stanton and Matt Dominguez and also players to watch for. Coghlan can play second and third base and has a decent shot of making the team while Stanton, an outfielder, and Dominguez, a third baseman, are more likely to spend the season maturing in their farm system. One or both could make a difference as a mid season call up though.

The Marlins will rely on a very young but high ceiling pitching staff. Led by Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Chris Volstad, fans will learn new names like Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, Anibal Sanchez, Ryan Tucker, Rick VandenHurk, and others. Their young bullpen will also get a chance to prove themselves and could become quite formidable.

The Marlins will have an uphill battle to be as competitive as they were last year. Especially in a division with the Phillies and Mets, their chances of making the playoffs is slim. But this is a team that can win 78-83 games and perhaps knock the Phillies or Mets out of the wild card race. The Marlins will again be a fun team to watch.

To read the predictions for the Washington Nationals, click here.

Eat My Words!

So here we are, getting ready for postseason play. But let us not forget predictions coming into the season. On March 30th, I made the predictions below. How did I do?

NL East Winners: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central Winners: Chicago Cubs
NL West Winners: Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card Winners: Atlanta Braves

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
NL MVP: Albert Puhols
NL Batting Title: Chase Utley

World Series Winner: Detroit Tigers

Well I got the Phillies and Cubs right. I may get the MVP correct. But other than that I had a rough year! Leave your post season predictions on this thread. Here are mine:

NLDS winners: Dodgers vs. Phillies
NLCS winners: Phillies

ALCS winners: Angels vs. Red Sox
ALCS winners: Angels

World Series winners: Heart says Phillies, head says Angels.

National League Predictions

Here is Phightin' Phils Phorums National League predictions for the 2008 season. I may eat my words come September but it is all part of the fun.

NL East Winners: Philadelphia Phillies
NL Central Winners: Chicago Cubs
NL West Winners: Arizona Diamondbacks
NL Wild Card Winners: Atlanta Braves

NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
NL MVP: Albert Puhols
NL Batting Title: Chase Utley

World Series Winner: Detroit Tigers

The predictions are in print so there is no going back now. Be sure to remind me how I did later in the season!